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Holiday shopping starts early, ends late

By Debra Hazel

When does the holiday shopping season begin? It used to be Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. But that may no longer be true, as recent holiday shopping results reveal. And predicting consumer behavior is becoming increasingly difficult.

A booming economy and record consumer confidence led to strong sales at some, but not all, department stores in December. Dayton Hudson Corp.'s sales rose 6.4% on a comparable basis, with its Department Store division reporting increases of 5.6%. The Bon-Ton Stores posted a 7.6% rise. On the down side, Federated Department Stores reported a 1.0% same-store sales rise for the month, while J.C. Penney's sales declined 2.3%.

Apparel specialty stores generally reported strong results: The Gap posted a 10.0% same-store increase, while United Retail's same-store sales rose 17.0%. However, warm winter weather led to a 10% sales drop at Eddie Bauer, and Ann Taylor Stores and Talbots also reported double-digit sales declines.

Last-minute shopping helped sales in regional malls rise 2.3% over the previous year, according to ICSC's Holiday Sales Watch.

"We did not give a prediction," said John Konarski, ICSC's director of research. "However, the final sales figures are in line with the revised predictions [made by others]. And 2.3% is a solid figure." The ICSC survey is based on statistics from 49 malls with some 2,500 specialty stores.

The numbers were something of a surprise, as early overall projections had predicted a 4% to 5% rise, then were revised downward about halfway through the season. Some now hypothesize that the wrong time period is being measured, that holiday shopping begins long before Thanksgiving and in fact extends for several days past Christmas and the end of Hanukkah. Several retailers, including jewelers Zale Corp. (up 8.3%), Marks Bros. (up 7.0%) and Tiffany & Co. (up 15.1%) reported results for the combined November/December period.

Initial traffic was high for the Thanksgiving weekend, with traffic up about 5.5% over the previous year, ICSC reported.

Sales during the first two days of the season rose 16% over the same period in 1996, said Visa U.S.A., San Francisco. But sales from that weekend now account for only some 10% of holiday sales, according to ICSC studies.

"We have changing consumer habits. In 1996, the busiest day was the Saturday before Christmas, Dec. 31. The second was the Monday before the holiday, Dec. 23, and the third busiest was Dec. 14, the Saturday before the 21st. This year, the busiest day was again the Saturday before the holiday, Dec. 20, followed again by Dec. 23. But the third busiest was Dec. 22, the Monday before the holiday," Mr. Konarski said.

Christine Menna, vp of corporate communications and marketing of Johnstown, Pa.-based Crown American Realty Trust, noted that October sales at Crown's centers rose 8% over the previous year. Early holiday shopping may be one reason.

Another possible factor for the slower sales earlier in December was the later start of Hanukkah, which began on Dec. 24 last year vs. Dec. 6 in 1996.

"Hanukkah may have hurt sales earlier in the month, then helped later. But it's hard to disentangle those sales from Christmas," said Michael P. Niemira, economist for the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, New York.

Sales at San Diego-based TrizecHahn Centers' malls were up substantially on Dec. 24 compared with the same date in 1996, and sales soared on Dec. 26. The firm tracks its centers' specialty store sales on a daily basis.

"This proves to us the importance of Hanukkah. Sales at our centers on Dec. 26 were up almost 67% from the previous year. That just can't be the post-holiday rush," said Alberta Davidson, SCMD, vp-corporate communications and marketing for TrizecHahn Centers. The centers also saw a 5% gain for the period of Dec. 28 through Dec. 30, said Ahnna Setterquist, CMD/CSM, director of sales development for TrizecHahn Centers.

Thus, retailers and their developer/landlords may have to adjust to a changing holiday shopping pattern, one extending from October through January.

"Retailers say shopping is done closer to Christmas, but they put their holiday stuff out sooner. There's a lot of reassessment that has to take place, more than just the window of measurement," Mr. Niemira said.