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Shopping Centers Today -> October 2003
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FLORIDA’S FUTURE ROSY FOR RETAIL, CONFEREES HEAR
KISSIMMEE, Fla. — Florida’s growing population could mean an increasing need for neighborhood retail for years to come, said speakers at ICSC’s 2003 Florida Conference.
The meeting, held at the Gaylord Palms Resort & Convention Center here in August, drew more than 3,200 registrants, an all-time record for the Florida Conference.
“A lot of people are moving here,” said Whitney Knoll, senior vice president of retail investment sales in the Atlanta office of Dallas-based Trammell Crow Co. “And the boomers already are here.” Florida’s population growth continues to outpace that of most of the nation. The baby boomers, now in their 40s and older, are in the prime earning period of their lives, and many also stand to receive substantial inheritances in coming years. Their children, too, now between 18 and 24, are likely to be spending significant amounts of time in the Sunshine State, either visiting or to relocate, Knoll said.
This growth will generate the need for 25 to 30 new grocery stores every year, noted David Marks, president of Marketplace Advisors, a Maitland, Fla., consulting firm. Other kinds of retail will be needed too. With the current level of U.S. retail space at 20 square feet per capita, the Florida boom will require some 5.6 million to 6 million square feet of new space annually, he said.
But retailers and their landlords must stay on their toes. Despite the need for new food retail, grocery stores have lost non-auto-related retail market share, largely to warehouse clubs and supercenters, Marks said. Between 1992 and 2002, grocery sales per capita rose 15.9 percent. Warehouse clubs and supercenters, meanwhile, posted an explosive per capita sales increase of 3,276 percent.
Drugstores, however, have bucked that trend, said Andy Hawkins, a vice president in Trammell Crow’s Orlando, Fla., office. Once considered to be threatened by discounters Wal-Mart and Target, drug retailers Walgreens and Eckerd are expanding their presence by stretching their merchandise mix to include additional perishables. The aging Florida population, with its rising medicinal needs, is also helping to boost sales.
“Ten years ago we questioned whether drugstores would last,” Hawkins said. “Today they are stronger than ever.”
— D.H.
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