Shopping Centers Today -> February 2008
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‘RELATIONSHIP' LENDERS TAKE THE WHEEL

Wall Street banks, bitten by the securities meltdown, have tightened their purse strings. But balance-sheet lenders, including commercial banks, life insurance companies and savings banks, are picking up some of the slack. "Life companies have long favored malls," said Thomas O'Hern, CFO of Macerich, at an investor conference in January. "We had lunch with a life company recently that's very interested in investing. We also had four banks bidding on an $80 million construction loan for one of our properties, and it came in at 135 over LIBOR." A bevy of banks from Ireland and Scotland have announced plans to build large real estate loan portfolios in coming years. The trend will likely bolster the industry's health, observers say, since balance-sheet lenders tend to rely on longstanding relationships and demonstrated development expertise when vetting loans.

REITS OPTIMISTIC FOR 2008

Despite concerns about the U.S. economy on the part of some, retail REIT executives anticipate a steady business climate for 2008, with few store closings. "Retail sales have never declined, despite several recessions," said Daniel B. Hurwitz, president and COO of Developers Diversified Realty Corp., at an investor conference in January. Simon Property Group CFO Stephen Sterrett said Simon's small-shop tenants are healthier financially than they have been in 15 years. The top 20 mall retailers' overall performance is uniformly positive, says Robert A. Michaels, president and COO of General Growth Properties. "The overall tenor for demand is still very good," he said.

And as for the risk of tenant bankruptcies, the outlook is downright rosy, according to Macerich CFO Thomas O'Hern. "Macerich saw $20 million in lease termination revenue in 2006, largely from Retail Brand Alliance store closings, $12 million in 2007 - a normal level, and it will likely be on the light side this year," O'Hern said. Simon is acting cautiously on new mall developments while forging ahead with new outlet center developments, said Sterrett. "For malls," he said, "we'll take a little risk out of the financing and won't mind delaying them for six months, a year or even 18 months before putting steel in the ground."

CMBS MARKET COOLING FAST AFTER BOOM

The securitization of U.S. commercial-mortgage-backed securities will total about $95 billion in 2008, down 60 percent from 2007, according to research from Merrill Lynch. The firm reports that industry trends, including low interest rates, record transaction volume and easily obtained leverage, have combined to fuel the market for the past five years, with last year's $229.5 billion in CMBS?issuance representing a 13 percent increase from 2006 and a threefold increase from the 2003 total. Since those trends have reversed, there is less demand for loans from borrowers as well as a reduction in the supply of financing from lenders.

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