OCTOBER ENDS ON A DOWN NOTE

Publish Date: November 05, 2013

Topics: icsc, research, retail, retail real estate, retail sales

ICSC Contacts:
Michael Niemira
+ 1 646-728-3472
mniemira@icsc.org

Jesse Tron
+ 1 646-728-3814
jtron@icsc.org

Malachy Kavanagh
+ 1 646-728-3495
mkavanagh@icsc.org

Goldman Sachs Contact:
Leslie Shribman
+1 212-902-5400

OCTOBER ENDS ON A DOWN NOTE 

NEW YORK, November 5, 2013 – As the fiscal month of October came to a close, retailers continued to deal with turbulent sales. For the week ending November 2, 2013 weekly retail sales declined by 0.6%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) and Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index. That was the second-consecutive weekly drop. On a year-over-year basis, the pace of sales rose by a sluggish 1.9%.

“The final week of the fiscal month of October ended lower sequentially for the industry, but compositionally retailer business was mixed," said Michael Niemira, ICSC vice president of research and chief economist. “According to the ICSC-Goldman Sachs consumer tracking survey, business improved for drug stores, department stores, wholesale clubs and furniture stores while it was weaker for grocery stores, apparel stores, discounters, dollar stores and electronics stores,” Niemira added.

For October, ICSC research anticipates that comparable-store sales will increase between 3.0% and 4.0% when retailers report their monthly numbers on Thursday, November 7, 2013.

   Week Ending           Index 1977=100           Year/Year Change           Weekly Change
 02-Nov-13                     538.2                              1.9%                                -0.6%
 26-Oct-13                      541.6                              2.2%                                -0.4%
 19-Oct-13                      543.8                              3.2%                                 1.4%
 12-Oct-13                      536.3                              1.0%                                -0.7%

The Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot is produced by the International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs. This index measures U.S. nominal same-store or comparable-store sales excluding restaurant and vehicle demand. The weekly index is constructed as a sales-weighted geometric average growth rate to preserve long-term consistency and is statistically benchmarked to a broad-based monthly retail industry sales aggregate that currently represents a sampling of leading retail chain stores, which also is compiled by ICSC. A representative sample of those major retailers has been used as a control group to extrapolate the weekly sales index. As such, the weekly index statistically represents industry sales and is not just a sum of sales for a handful of retailers. The standard period used for the index is Sunday through Saturday, even though some retailers use a different weekly accounting period. The weekly sales index is presented on an adjusted basis to account for normal seasonality and to counter other data anomalies. Weekly seasonal adjustment is at best difficult for chain store sales given that retailers can and often do shift promotions to counter typical shifts in the calendar. Nonetheless, the approach to weekly seasonal adjustment used follows from the Piser Method, which was popular in the early 1930s and became the standard for weekly adjustment.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a bank holding company and a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm. Goldman Sachs provides a wide range of services worldwide to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high net worth individuals. Founded in 1869, the firm is headquartered in New York and maintains offices in London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Hong Kong and other major financial centers around the world.

Founded in 1957, ICSC is the premier global trade association of the shopping center industry. Its more than 60,000 members in over 90 countries include shopping center owners, developers, managers, marketing specialists, investors, retailers and brokers, as well as academics and public officials.  As the global industry trade association, ICSC links with more than 25 national and regional shopping center councils throughout the world.  For more information, visit www.icsc.org.  

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